Good Economic Surprises Happening Now

Published Friday, September 7, 2018 at: 7:00 AM EDT

Forward-looking data on the broad economy, along with new reports on employment and wages, indicate the U.S. economy is in the midst of an unexpected surge.

Managers at manufacturing companies responsible for purchasing reported orders were up in August, over July. The Institute of Supply Management, a trade group for professional purchasing managers at large companies, said its index of manufacturing order activity hit a 14-year high of 61.3%, up sharply from July's 58.1%.

The index is based on 10 components and the key one — the forward-looking new orders sub-index — hit 65.1%. After second quarter growth surged to 4.2%, the economy was expected to slow down. The new orders figure is the first confirmation a good surprise is under way.

Meanwhile, purchasing managers at non-manufacturing companies, which account for about 86% of U.S. economic activity, also shot up in August to 58.5%, up from July's 55.7%, and the forward-looking new-orders sub-index rose from July's 57% to 60.4%.

The economy created 201,000 new jobs in August, more than the 190,000 expected.

Growth in job creation is more persistent than in the last expansion. This is another good surprise.

In the 12 months through July, average hourly earnings of employees grew 2.7% over the growth rate of July 2017.

A month later, in the 12 months through August 2018, average hourly earnings grew by 2.9%.

Wage growth acceleration was not expected. This too is another good surprise.

In early August, the 57 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted average quarterly growth over the five quarters ahead of 2.7%.

That was a month ago, before the surprisingly good wage, employment, and broad forward-looking data was known.

This article was written by a veteran financial journalist based on data compiled and analyzed by independent economist, Fritz Meyer. While these are sources we believe to be reliable, the information is not intended to be used as financial advice without consulting a professional about your personal situation. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. Past performance is not an indicator of your future results.

The articles written in this newsletter were written by a journalist hired by Advisor Products, Inc. and provided to you by The Clark Group Asset Management. Their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The Clark Group Asset Management is not a legal or tax advisor.

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Despite A Lackluster Black Friday, Economic Fundamentals Look Good

Despite Bank Fears And A Fed Hike, Stocks Climbed For The Week

Despite the threat of bank runs and a quarter-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index closed a volatile week with a gain

Read More
Read More

The Clark Group’s mission is to build long-lasting relationships with our clients and help them organize, grow and protect their hard-earned assets through life’s transitions. Along the way, our goal is to provide peace of mind for our clients through trust, thoroughness and transparency. Our experience has taught us that our value comes from helping clients make sound financial decisions while minimizing the emotion that often comes with investing. We are here to guide you through both good and bad economic times.

As a fiduciary financial advisor, we have a legal obligation to always act in your best interest and disclose any conflicts that could prevent us from servicing you. Furthermore, our compensation is fee-based which allows us to be completely objective and aligns our incentives with our client’s best interests. We provide clients in the Los Angeles, Orange County, and Southern California area with investment management, retirement planning, portfolio risk assessment, and charitable giving strategies.

iexodus